Polling expert John Curtice expresses skepticism about Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick’s ability to win back voters and lead the Conservative Party to electoral victory. As the race to replace Rishi Sunak enters its final stages, party members must choose between these two candidates by the end of the month, following the unexpected ousting of centrist frontrunner James Cleverly in the latest MPs’ ballot.
Curtice highlights that both Badenoch and Jenrick, who align with the party’s right wing, may struggle to bridge the electoral divide. Badenoch has criticized “woke” culture and suggested that not all cultures are equally valid, while Jenrick has advocated for the UK to exit the European Convention on Human Rights to enhance immigration control. However, Curtice notes that both candidates remain largely unknown to the public, with an Ipsos UK poll revealing that 62% of respondents showed little interest in the leadership contest.
Curtice argues that Badenoch and Jenrick fail to grasp the reasons behind the Conservatives’ poor performance in the July elections. He asserts that their belief that the party’s decline stems from a deviation from conservative values overlooks the significant impact of issues like Partygate and Liz Truss’s controversial mini-Budget. Additionally, Curtice doubts their capacity to reclaim votes lost to the far-right Reform party in July, suggesting they must demonstrate a broader range of political skills to win back the electorate’s trust. The Conservative Party currently holds just 121 seats in parliament, marking the lowest total in its history.
